Second-order thinking is a deliberate way of generating a mental model that pulls away from how things aren’t always as they appear. 

Often times, problems are like threads on a worn-out sweater, pull one and it starts to unravel a slew of other related problems. Therefore, it’s crucial to consider second and subsequent orders of impact or consequences of your decision. Seemingly simple, yes. But a difficult practice when we are wired for short-term safety, comfort and reward. 

Howard Marks, the author of “The Most Important Thing” illustrates this in depth: differentiating first-level thinking as overly simplistic, superficial and speedy. Second (or third and fourth) order thinking however requires depth, navigating complexity and weeding through convoluted options. It requires the work of asking, “And Then What?” Over and over again across time horizons and scenarios to better inform your decisions and reach an unobvious conclusion. 

It’s a practice in seeing things other people can’t see or even know, whereby contributing to your future odds of success if you can spot the gap, opportunity, or threat.